Where PA-01's mail vote is, 23 days out

Pennsylvania's 1st sits in one television market: Philadelphia (3,145,920 TV homes). A broadcast point is bought for the whole market. The district is a fraction of the Philadelphia market, so most of every point lands outside the line. Streaming is bought by the impression, by ZIP, so the corner costs what the corner costs.

Nielsen market assignment by county, TV homes 2024–25 via USTVDB. District from the Census Bureau's 119th Congress boundaries.

107,565 voters in the district have a mail ballot coming, 61% of them Democrats. Pennsylvania has no in-person early voting, so this file is the early vote. Ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count.

Every request on file with the county election offices, by party of registration. Excludes duplicates.

The state house district is the finest grain the state publishes for this file. All voters requested: 107,565 across the district.

1. House District 31 · Bucks13,826 · 13%
2. House District 29 · Bucks13,107 · 12%
3. House District 144 · Bucks10,412 · 10%
4. House District 178 · Bucks10,388 · 10%
5. House District 143 · Bucks9,381 · 9%
6. House District 142 · Bucks8,976 · 8%
7. House District 145 · Bucks7,633 · 7%
8. House District 18 · Bucks6,459 · 6%

Hover or tap any shape for its number. ZIP and precinct boundaries from the Census Bureau; precincts are 2020 voting districts.

Cumulative requests by the day the application was issued. 44% of the file was already on it by March 1: the permanent mail list renews every January, and those voters get a ballot without asking again. Everything after that is new demand, and the slope since Labor Day is the campaign's own work showing up.

Application issue date, by party. Permanent-list renewals appear as the January and February steps.

Share of requested ballots already returned, by days before the election. At 23 days out in 2024, 20.8% of the district's mail ballots were back. That year 194,211 were requested and 162,257 were counted. The gap between the grey line and the green one, on any given night, is the chase: the ballots a campaign can still move, by district.

2024 from the Department of State's archived general-election file for the same district; 2026 updates daily. Returned means recorded by the county.

Mail voters skew old: 55% of the file is 65 or over, and among Democrats it is 54%. The under-30 file is 9,222 voters, 70% of them Democrats. Streaming reaches the first group on the living-room TV and the second on the phone; the same ZIP list serves both.

Age from birth year on the application. Bands are as of election year.

259 approved applications are flagged "ID not verified." Those voters get a ballot, but it will not count until they cure the ID with the county, and most do not know that. 672 requests have been cancelled, usually by the voter. Both are lists with addresses in specific districts, which is to say, an audience.

Application type and disposition codes as published. Online applications with no ID check needed are voters whose license number matched on file.

Fitzpatrick had $6.36M in the bank on June 30 to Harvie's $795K. Cook rates it Tossup. Money asymmetry is the argument for precision: the side with less cannot afford 3,145,920 homes to reach the ones inside the line.

FEC candidate totals through June 30, 2026. Polls and ratings as published; independent expenditures not included here.

Weights are tonight's file. They change every night as ballots come back, and the flight follows them: the streaming buy re-aims to the districts with the most ballots still out, by ZIP, at frequency, with every impression returned as a line item: the app, the show, the city, the hour, the price paid.

Antebyte buys streaming TV, online video, web and in-app impressions from one account, by ZIP and by polygon, prepaid by the week, cancel any day. If any of this is useful, reply and I'll send tonight's file for any district you name.