Where MI-07's mail vote is, 23 days out
Seven exhibits, all public data, refreshed daily from the state's voting dashboard. Under each one is the reason it locates reach, and the numbers. Data as of October 10.
Michigan's 7th sits in 3 television markets: Lansing (265,830 TV homes) and Detroit (1,940,750 TV homes) and Flint–Saginaw–Bay City (458,710 TV homes). A broadcast point is bought for the whole market. The counties in Detroit never see a Lansing buy, and the campaign cannot afford a second market for a corner of the district. Streaming is bought by the impression, by ZIP, so the corner costs what the corner costs.
Nielsen market assignment by county, TV homes 2024–25 via USTVDB. District from the Census Bureau's 119th Congress boundaries.
192,700 absentee ballots requested across the district's 7 counties. Michigan has no party registration, so the file carries no party split; the 2024 precinct margins below carry the partisan story. Ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3, and nine days of early in-person voting run October 24 to November 1.
Absent-voter applications on file with the clerks, from the state's voting dashboard; counts under 10 are suppressed by the state.
The city or township is the finest grain the state publishes for this file. All voters requested: 192,700 across the district.
- Lansing City · Ingham24,238 · 13%
- Meridian Township · Ingham14,365 · 7%
- Delta Charter Township · Eaton10,156 · 5%
- Delhi Charter Township · Ingham8,548 · 4%
- East Lansing City · Ingham6,603 · 3%
- Hamburg Township · Livingston6,421 · 3%
- Lyon Township · Oakland6,376 · 3%
- Genoa Township · Livingston6,288 · 3%
Hover or tap any shape for its number. ZIP and precinct boundaries from the Census Bureau; precincts are 2020 voting districts.
Michigan publishes the daily series statewide only. Most of the file is the permanent mail-ballot list, which gets a ballot automatically; the slope is new requests coming in.
Statewide absent-voter applications on file, by day, from the state's voting dashboard.
Share of requested ballots already returned, by days before the election. At 23 days out in 2024, 24.8% of the district's mail ballots were back. That year 216,621 were requested and 199,765 were counted. The gap between the grey line and the green one, on any given night, is the chase: the ballots a campaign can still move, by district.
The state's dashboard counts returns by day only statewide, so both lines take the statewide shape: 2024 scaled to the district's 2024 requests, 2026 ending on the district's own count in the latest file.
Barrett had $2.87M in the bank on June 30 to Lawrence's $383K. Cook rates it Tossup. Money asymmetry is the argument for precision: the side with less cannot afford 265,830 homes to reach the ones inside the line.
FEC candidate totals through June 30, 2026. Polls and ratings as published; independent expenditures not included here.
| Unit | All voters · requested | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Lansing City Ingham | 24,238 | 13% |
| Meridian Township Ingham | 14,365 | 7% |
| Delta Charter Township Eaton | 10,156 | 5% |
| Delhi Charter Township Ingham | 8,548 | 4% |
| East Lansing City Ingham | 6,603 | 3% |
| Hamburg Township Livingston | 6,421 | 3% |
| Lyon Township Oakland | 6,376 | 3% |
| Genoa Township Livingston | 6,288 | 3% |
Weights are tonight's file. They change every night as ballots come back, and the flight follows them: the streaming buy re-aims to the districts with the most ballots still out, by ZIP, at frequency, with every impression returned as a line item: the app, the show, the city, the hour, the price paid.
Antebyte buys streaming TV, online video, web and in-app impressions from one account, by ZIP and by polygon, prepaid by the week, cancel any day. If any of this is useful, reply and I'll send tonight's file for any district you name.