Where PA-07's mail vote is, 23 days out
Nine exhibits, all public data, refreshed daily from the state's mail-ballot file. Under each one is the reason it locates reach, and the numbers. Data as of October 9.
Pennsylvania's 7th sits in 2 television markets: Philadelphia (3,145,920 TV homes) and Wilkes-Barre–Scranton (589,190 TV homes). A broadcast point is bought for the whole market. The counties in Wilkes-Barre–Scranton never see a Philadelphia buy, and the campaign cannot afford a second market for a corner of the district. Streaming is bought by the impression, by ZIP, so the corner costs what the corner costs.
Nielsen market assignment by county, TV homes 2024–25 via USTVDB. District from the Census Bureau's 119th Congress boundaries.
77,797 voters in the district have a mail ballot coming, 65% of them Democrats. Pennsylvania has no in-person early voting, so this file is the early vote. Ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count.
Every request on file with the county election offices, by party of registration. Excludes duplicates.
The state house district is the finest grain the state publishes for this file. All voters requested: 77,797 across the district.
- House District 137 · Northampton10,057 · 13%
- House District 132 · Lehigh8,403 · 11%
- House District 187 · Lehigh8,135 · 10%
- House District 138 · Northampton7,657 · 10%
- House District 183 · Lehigh, Northampton7,033 · 9%
- House District 135 · Northampton6,683 · 9%
- House District 131 · Northampton, Lehigh6,453 · 8%
- House District 133 · Lehigh5,859 · 8%
Hover or tap any shape for its number. ZIP and precinct boundaries from the Census Bureau; precincts are 2020 voting districts.
Cumulative requests by the day the application was issued. 47% of the file was already on it by March 1: the permanent mail list renews every January, and those voters get a ballot without asking again. Everything after that is new demand, and the slope since Labor Day is the campaign's own work showing up.
Application issue date, by party. Permanent-list renewals appear as the January and February steps.
Share of requested ballots already returned, by days before the election. At 23 days out in 2024, 9.4% of the district's mail ballots were back. That year 152,168 were requested and 127,494 were counted. The gap between the grey line and the green one, on any given night, is the chase: the ballots a campaign can still move, by district.
2024 from the Department of State's archived general-election file for the same district; 2026 updates daily. Returned means recorded by the county.
Mail voters skew old: 57% of the file is 65 or over, and among Democrats it is 56%. The under-30 file is 5,786 voters, 73% of them Democrats. Streaming reaches the first group on the living-room TV and the second on the phone; the same ZIP list serves both.
Age from birth year on the application. Bands are as of election year.
368 approved applications are flagged "ID not verified." Those voters get a ballot, but it will not count until they cure the ID with the county, and most do not know that. 635 requests have been cancelled, usually by the voter. Both are lists with addresses in specific districts, which is to say, an audience.
Application type and disposition codes as published. Online applications with no ID check needed are voters whose license number matched on file.
Mackenzie had $2.94M in the bank on June 30 to Brooks's $1.02M. Cook rates it Tossup. Money asymmetry is the argument for precision: the side with less cannot afford 3,145,920 homes to reach the ones inside the line.
FEC candidate totals through June 30, 2026. Polls and ratings as published; independent expenditures not included here.
| Unit | All voters · requested | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| House District 137 Northampton | 10,057 | 13% |
| House District 132 Lehigh | 8,403 | 11% |
| House District 187 Lehigh | 8,135 | 10% |
| House District 138 Northampton | 7,657 | 10% |
| House District 183 Lehigh, Northampton | 7,033 | 9% |
| House District 135 Northampton | 6,683 | 9% |
| House District 131 Northampton, Lehigh | 6,453 | 8% |
| House District 133 Lehigh | 5,859 | 8% |
Weights are tonight's file. They change every night as ballots come back, and the flight follows them: the streaming buy re-aims to the districts with the most ballots still out, by ZIP, at frequency, with every impression returned as a line item: the app, the show, the city, the hour, the price paid.
Antebyte buys streaming TV, online video, web and in-app impressions from one account, by ZIP and by polygon, prepaid by the week, cancel any day. If any of this is useful, reply and I'll send tonight's file for any district you name.